IP or not IP?

I recently read an article stating that telecom managers are not adopting IP telephones quickly because of the industry indecision on protocols. This was not stated as the only reason, but a primary one.

It occurs to me that if we all waited for protocol decisions, we might not buy anything new. Granted, we are not all early adopters. The decision to start using IP for any portion of our voice transmission goes beyond a selection of telephone styles. We all know, however, that any technology will become obsolete. It is simply a matter of when.

My argument with this buying decision is the fact that almost everything we buy today is disposable. Even our huge investments in legacy PBX equipment don't last forever. They typical life span of a PBX has gone from approximately 10 years to closer to 7. This is not to say it will no longer function after 7 years. Aside from the issues of capital investment and the cost of money is the fact that newer versions will allow much more capability, functionality and efficiency. An organization can't afford to be too far behind the times, so they upgrade.

The same is true of the phones. On the residential side, I remember my Grandmother having a telephone in her house that was the one and only phone she ever owned. My parents have probably had 3 in all the time I can remember. I, however, have had at least 10. Sometimes there was a need, but more often I just wanted some new functionality. I recently spent about $200 on a cordless phone. I have no vision of it lasting forever - even though it cost a fortune. If I get 5 years out of it I will be happy.

At work, I generally think of the phone lasting 3 or 4 years. Heck, most employees don't last that long anymore. In 1960 Vance Packard wrote a book, The Waste Makers, about the social implication of this disposable economy. It became a bestseller, and required reading in many college classes.

With this in mind, the issue of uncertain protocols influencing buying decisions becomes somewhat insignificant. Of course, there are issues of required software and hardware that have to be factored in. But if the phone will work for a few years, that is about all we can expect. We might have it repaired once, but never more than that. No matter when you buy, within a few years there will be a new model. The current phone will become harder to replace or repair and whether you like it or not, you will have to start using the new models. And as soon as you get one or two for the office, people start seeing them, and they all want them. It seems to be the way we do things.

If the economy is truly beginning to make a turnaround, we might see a lot of people opting for IP phones soon. I believe it is more a matter of the added software enhancements, and additional hardware costs that are keeping people from venturing into this new technology. When times are tough we wait it out and manage with what we have. After all, we still have dial tone.